Its been 11 months since I left my
rather fairly well-paying job and a PhD program in Nigeria to pursue an MBA
program in Canada. Mine was less of an economic move. Rather, it was borne out
of an avid desire for educational advancement, international exposure and experience
that will shape future plans. The rather backward political dispensation and
retrogressing economy of the largest black Nation did help enable my decision, however.
My former employer, a huge multinational of repute, had just
closed down its biggest manufacturing plant on that side of Africa for
issues related to economic viability and profitability. Put simply, it was becoming
difficult to do business in Nigeria.
Thus, the average Nigerian dream of
relocation out of Nigeria is mostly based on the gloom and perceived lack of
hope or respite in the near future for Nigeria. The body language of the current
government and political jobbers seem to be that of “we care more about
ourselves and our hefty paychecks than we care for the existence of 186
million Nigerian citizenry”. Sad.
However, this is not a new development.
Nigeria has always been afflicted by mediocre and lacklustre leaders who will
rather enrich themselves than enable a broken system as indicated by all current
economic and development indices. The acclaimed “giant of Africa” continues to
underperform. Inflation
rate remains relatively high at 11.22%. 5
years inflation rate projection is expected to remain high hovering around 11%.
Per capital GDP of
Nigeria is 2,396 US dollars as at 2018 with a downward trend since the start
of the tenure of the current President in 2015. For perspective, Nigeria has
the lowest current per capital GDP among all countries who had similar per
capital GDP 30 years ago.
What is different? In 2015, Nigerians
elected the current president (often called PMB) under the auspices and
expectation of better economic performance, removal of political larceny and
corruption from the system as well as uplifting 50% of Nigeria’s population who
live in abject poverty. It has always been popularly rationalised that removal
of political corruption will lead to economic progression and reduction in
poverty – this is a wrong assumption, a dangerous one at that. Its almost impossible
to remove corruption entirely from a nascent democracy like Nigeria or any
democracy at all.
PMB’s election campaign strategy was centered
around this failed expectation; an election he won by a large “rather shifty”
margin – he was quite popular amongst the lower class. He was even more popular
among the middle class inclusive of myself for his perceived integrity and “no
nonsense” demeanor. This was our mistake – a costly one I must say.
Fast forward to 2019, the Nation under
PMB had sunk below all economic indices he met. Suffice to say that financial
malfeasance and corruption, the reason he won the election in the first place, is
actively thriving. A sitting
state Governor was recorded accepting bribes (in foreign currency) several
times with no consequence. Another task force head
embezzled about 5.5-million-dollars pension fund and is known to be walking around
freely. Several ongoing corruption cases involving several former office holders
seem to be heading nowhere.
Furthermore, insecurity in Nigeria heightened
and shifted from Boko Haram to Fulani herdsmen (probably with politically
motivated undertones in my opinion) but with similar outcome of loss of lives. As
at end of 2018, about 1,600
Nigerians had lost their lives to the Fulani herdsmen with another 300,000
displaced. This number maybe shifty as some of the killings go unreported. Kidnaping
and highway robbery is on a fast trajectory. Unemployment is at its highest ever
at 23.13%. And tertiary education and healthcare system remain at abysmally
low levels of functionality.
Therein comes the rather recent spike in
the Nigerian-Canadian dream; the dream to relocate out of Nigeria to Canada on
grounds of economic progression and safety. And more importantly, the dream to
own a second passport. Nigerians have always relocated out of the country. It
is said that 1 in every
7 black person in the world is Nigerian. Some other unpublished data
suggests that 1 in every 4 black person is Nigerian. This wasn’t obvious to me
till I relocated out of the country despite being averagely travelled
previously.
However, an increasing number of mostly middle-class
Nigerians seem to be exiting and relocating to better climes in Canada and
Australia in droves. In 2016, the number of Nigerian citizens that was issued
an invitation to apply for Canadian Permanent Residency program was 1,041
people. By 2017, that number increased to 5,130; about
4000% increase. In 2018, the number of Nigerians invited to apply for
Canadian Permanent residency climbed
up once again to 6,025; another 17% increase. There is no published data on
the actual number of people who applied to the Express entry program. I reckon,
however, that the growth rate for this will be in thousand-fold.
What about the student visa applications?
Data available suggests an astronomical surge in the application to Canadian
Universities and colleges by Nigerians. Nigeria is now one of the top 10
markets for university and college recruitment. My MBA program
administrator recently invited me into a meeting to discuss how to tap into the
Nigerian market. Why? Because there has suddenly been a spike in rate of
application for the MBA program from Nigeria. Interactions with friends in
other business schools in Canada suggest the same trend. Despite this, the rate
of student visa refusal from Nigeria is astronomically higher than would be
expected. At 81%
student visa refusal rate, less than 2 out of every 10 student visa application
from Nigeria is approved. However, this doesn’t seem to deter Nigerians from
applying still.
Besides Canada, a publicly
available data states that there has been a 15.2% increase in the number of
Nigerians who overstayed their US visa in 2018 vs 2017. A total of 29,723
Nigerians overstayed their US Visa in 2018 only. This has led to an even more
stringent visa application process for Nigerians applying to United states.
Ditto United Kingdom.
All of these suggest a dangerous shift
in the average Nigerian dream. Ten or so years ago, the average Nigerian dream would
have been to graduate from the university, get a great job with a multinational
company, earn a stable income and start a family. This has since changed as hordes
of “comfortable middle class” Nigerians continue to plan their exit from a “perceived
failing country”. The big question, however, is does the average Nigerian dream
end with relocation to Canada? Does the struggle end with relocation? I think
not.
Ps: Write up finished in part 2.
Foye